Lloyd Webber has a theory that Picasso's Blue Period paintings were influenced by Burne-Jones, the British Pre-Raphaelite master whose international reputation stood high at the turn of the century. The theory is not shared by many art historians, but that doesn't matter to the composer. He had been looking for a Blue Period Picasso for some time.
It is now extremely hard to come by Blue Period Picassos—figurative works that are drenched in melancholy, expressed by a dominant use of blue. Blue Period subjects par excellence are mothers and children or harlequins; Lloyd Webber's purchase is not the most attractive of them. He paid roughly double what the picture was worth. He seems to have got carried away when the bidding started to climb.
The Picasso was one of the two highest prices of the 1994—1995 auction season, and help illustrate what has been happening in this curious market. The very rich have got their confidence back, which has meant that buyers can be found for works of really outstanding quality and, very occasionally, bidding battles have driven prices back to their 1989—1990 levels.
The 1980s boom collapsed in 1990. After several false dawns there are now signs that serious recovery has begun. More than an expansion of the market, however, it reflects the relative weakness of the American dollar, the currency in which most art deals are transacted. Collectors from countries with stronger currencies have been finding dollar prices cheap.
The middle market is still fairly weak. It is not unusual for up to half the lots on offer at a Christie's or Sotheby's sale to be left unsold. Dealers, as opposed to auctioneers, are still finding it bard to make a living and seldom buy for stock. The auctioneers have tried to replace them by encouraging private people to buy directly at auction—and more of them are doing this. But private buying is unpredictable and cannot underpin the market in the way dealer buying used to. Private individuals buy what they want; they don't bid on everything that is going cheap.
Overall, the nature of the market is changing. In' the 1980s art was bought as a speculation: buy in April, sell for double the price in September. This mentality vanished with the 1990 collapse, but the very rich and their financial advisors still take the view that it is sensible to keep a percentage of your investment portfolio in art. It is this kind of money that creates the fancy prices at the top end of the market.
Geographically, the present recovery has been led by North America. Normally a major recession, such as was experienced in the United States, results in a shift of taste. But the Americans liked Impressionist and classic modern pictures best before the market collapse and that is what they have been coming back to. It is currently the strongest sector of the picture market. Contemporary and Old Master markets are still struggling and there are few buyers for Victorian pictures, apart from Lloyd Webber.Besides Europe and America, however, there is now a growing market in the East. Indeed, the East has become the great hope of hard-pressed dealers over the last three years—they have been aiming to find new buyers in Japan, Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong and China.
There are more rich connoisseurs in Japan than anywhere else but they have not been in a buying mood. Japanese speculators lost huge amounts of money in the 1990s crash and there are few collectors who dare to buy any works of art today. The market in Chinese ceramics, works of art, jade jewelry and old and modern brush paintings is now dominated worldwide by wealthy collectors

A. The American dollar has become weaker against some major currencies.
B. The very rich wish to put part of their investment in art.
C. The very rich have regained their confidence.
Dealers buying is growing strong.