题目内容
Judging by prices in futures markets, investors are betting that short-term interest rates could start rising as early as May, and will be 1.25 percentage points higher by the end of the year. That may be excessive. Economists at Goldman Sachs, who long argued that the central bank would do nothing this year, now expect short-term rates to go up only 0.75% this year, starting in June. But virtually everyone reckons some Fed tightening is in the offing.
The reason？ After an unprecedented 11 rate-cuts in 2001, short-term interest rates are abnormally low. As the signs of robust recovery multiply, analysts expect the Fed to take back some of the rate-cuts it used as an "insurance policy" after the September 11th terrorist attack. They think there will be a gradual move from the Fed's current "accommodative" monetary stance to a more neutral policy. And a neutral policy, many argue, ultimately implies short-term interest rates of around 4%.
Logical enough. But higher rates could still be further off, particularly if the recovery proves less robust than many hope. Certainly, recent economic indicators have been extraordinarily strong, unemployment fell for the second consecutive month in February and industrial production rose in both January and February. The manufacturing sector is growing after 18 months of decline. The most optimistic Wall Streeters now expect GDP to have expanded by between 5% and 6% on an annual basis in the first quarter.
But one strong quarter does not imply a sustainable recovery. In the short term, the bounce-back is being driven by a dramatic restocking of inventories. But it can be sustained only if corporate investment recovers and consumer spending stays buoyant. With plenty of slack capacity around and many firms stuck with huge debts and lousy profits, it is hard to see where surging investment will come from. And, despite falling unemployment, America's consumers could disappoint the bulls.
These uncertainties alone suggest the central bank will be cautious about raising interest rates. Indeed, given the huge pressure on corporate profits, the Federal Reserve might be happy to see consumer prices rise slightly. In short, while Wall Street frets about when and how much interest rates will go up. The answer may well be not soon and not much.
The purpose of the author in writing this text is to ______.
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How does everyone feel about the message given by America's central bank？
The phrase "current 'accommodative' monetary stance" (Para. 3) denotes ______.
The description of Congress's "giggle factor" (Para. 6) shows the writer's ______.
Part A
Directions: Read the following four texts. Answer the questions below each text by choosing A, B, C or D. (40 points)
The discovery of life beyond Earth would transform. not only our science but also our religions, our belief systems and our entire world-view. For in a sense, the search for extraterrestrial life is really a search for ourselves—who we are and what our place is in the grand sweep of the cosmos.
Contrary to popular belief, speculation that we are not alone in the universe is as old as philosophy itself. The essential steps in the reasoning were based on the atomic theory of the ancient Greek philosopher Democritus. Yet philosophy is one thing, filling in the physical details is another. Although astronomers increasingly suspect that biofriendly planets may be abundant in the universe, the chemical steps leading to life remain largely mysterious.
Traditionally, biologists believed that life is a freak—the result of a zillion-to-one accidental concatenation of molecules. It follows that the likelihood of its happening again elsewhere in the cosmos is infinitesimal. This viewpoint derives from the second law of thermodynamics, which predicts that the universe is dying—slowly and inexorably degenerating toward a state of total chaos. And similar reasoning applies to evolution. According to the orthodox view, Darwinian selection is utterly blind. Any impression that the transition from microbes to man represents progress is pure chauvinism of our part. The path of evolution is merely a random walk through the realm of possibilities.
If this is right, there can be no directionality, no innate drive forward; in particular, no push toward consciousness and intelligence. Should Earth be struck by an asteroid, destroying all higher life-forms, intelligent beings would almost certainly not arise next time around. There is, however, a contrary view—one that is gaining strength and directly challenges orthodox biology. It is that complexity can emerge spontaneously through a process of self- organization. If matter and energy have an inbuilt tendency to amplify and channel organized complexity, the odds against the formation of life and the subsequent evolution of intelligence could be drastically shortened.
Historically, Bertrand Russell argued that a universe under a death sentence from the second law of thermodynamics rendered human life ultimately futile. All our achievements, all our struggles, "all the noonday brightness of human genius", as he put it, would, in the final analysis, count for nothing if the very cosmos itself is doomed. But what if, in spite of the second law of thermodynamics, there can be systematic progress alongside decay？ For those who hope for a deeper meaning or purpose beneath physical existence, the presence of extraterrestrial life-forms would provide a spectacular boost, implying that we live in a universe that is in some sense getting better and better rather than worse and worse.
The writer organizes his ideas in the text mainly by ______.
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