超星 - 决策树分析法（Decision Tree Analysis） - 查题吧

简答题

Your corporation has been presented with a new product development proposal.你的公司已经提交了新产品开发的建议。The cost of the development project is $500,000.该项目的开发成本是50万元，The probability of successful development is projected to be 70%.开发成功的概率预计为70％。If the development is unsuccessful, the project will be terminated.如果开发不成功，该项目将被终止。If it is successful, the manufacturer must then decide whether to begin manufacturing the product on a new production line or a modified production line.如果成功，制造商必须决定是在一个新的生产线还是在经改造的生产线上制造该产品。If the demand for the new product is high, the incremental revenue for a new production line is $1,200,000, and the incremental revenue for the modified production line is $850,000.如果产品需求高的话，新生产线增加的收入为120万元，而经改造生产线增加的收入为85万元。If the demand is low, the incremental revenue for the new production line is $700,000, and the incremental revenue for the modified production line is $150,000.如果产品需求低的话，新生产线增加的收入为70万美元，而经改造生产线增加的收入为15万元。All of these incremental revenue values are gross figures, ie, before subtracting the $500,000 development cost, $300,000 for the new production line and $100,000 for the modified production line.所有这些收入增量，未减去50万元开发成本，新生产线30万美元，改造生产线10万美元。The probability of high demand is estimated as 40%, and of low demand as 60%.高需求概率估计为40％，低需求概率估计为60％。请运用决策树分析法，为你的公司应该采取何种新产品开发策略。

简答题

Your corporation has been presented with a new product development proposal.你的公司已经提交了新产品开发的建议。The cost of the development project is $500,000.该项目的开发成本是50万元，The probability of successful development is projected to be 70%.开发成功的概率预计为70％。If the development is unsuccessful, the project will be terminated.如果开发不成功，该项目将被终止。If it is successful, the manufacturer must then decide whether to begin manufacturing the product on a new production line or a modified production line.如果成功，制造商必须决定是在一个新的生产线还是在经改造的生产线上制造该产品。If the demand for the new product is high, the incremental revenue for a new production line is $1,200,000, and the incremental revenue for the modified production line is $850,000.如果产品需求高的话，新生产线增加的收入为120万元，而经改造生产线增加的收入为85万元。If the demand is low, the incremental revenue for the new production line is $700,000, and the incremental revenue for the modified production line is $150,000.如果产品需求低的话，新生产线增加的收入为70万元，而经改造生产线增加的收入为15万元。All of these incremental revenue values are gross figures, ie, before subtracting the $500,000 development cost, $300,000 for the new production line and $100,000 for the modified production line.所有这些收入增量，未减去50万元开发成本，新生产线30万元，改造生产线10万元。The probability of high demand is estimated as 40%, and of low demand as 60%.高需求概率估计为40％，低需求概率估计为60％。请运用决策树分析法，为你的公司应该采取何种新产品开发策略。

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