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New Stanford research reveals that farmers in Europe will see crop yields affected as global temperatures rise, but that adaptation can help slow the decline for some crops.
For corn, the anticipated loss is roughly 10 percent, the research shows.
Farmers of these crops have already seen yield growth slow down since 1980 as temperatures have risen, though other policy and economic factors have also played a role.
"The results clearly showed that modest amounts of climate change can have a big impact on yields of several crops in Europe," said Stanford doctoral student Frances Moore, who conducted the research with David Lobell, an associate professor of environmental Earth system science.
Moore described the results as somewhat surprising because Europe is fairly cool. "So you might think it would benefit from moderate amounts of warming,"she said. "Our next step was to actually measure the potential of European farmers to adapt to these impacts."
"By adaptation, we mean a range of options based on existing technologies,such as switching varieties of a crop, installing irrigation or growing a different crop, one better suited to wanner temperatures," said Lobell. "These things have been talked about for a long time, but the novelty (新奇) of this study was using past data to quantify (量化) the actual potential of adaptation to reduce climate change impacts. We find that in some cases adaptation could substantially reduce impacts, but in other cases the potential may be very limited with current technologies."
Moore pointed out that the biggest issues are often how quickly farmers in Europe will adapt to climate change (adaptation uncertainty) and how crop yields will respond to climate change (response uncertainty).
"This paper has shown that crops in Europe are sensitive to wanning and that adaptation can be important in reducing that impact," Moore said. "The next question is how quickly farmers will use the available options for adapting.
Europe has already seen a lot of warming, so we should expect to already see adaptation if farmers are quick to respond to climate signals,"
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