题目内容
The author holds the rise of prediction market depends on ______.
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Section B
Directions: There are 2 passages in this section. Each passage is followed by some questions or unfinished statements. For each of them there are four choices marked A, B, C and D. You should decide on the best choice.
Not so long ago, prediction markets (市场预测) were being considered as a fantastic new way to forecast everything from the completion date of a vital project to a firm's annual sales. But although they have spread beyond early-adopting companies in the technology industry, they have still not become mainstream management tools. Even crazy advocates admit much remains to be done to convince doubtful managers of their value. "It's still a pretty blessing business, " says Leslie Fine of CrowdCast, one of the firms that provide trading platforms for companies keen to pool the collective wisdom of their employees.
Prediction markets work by giving people virtual trading accounts that allow them to buy and sell "shares" that correspond to a particular outcome. Shares in an outcome that is considered more likely to occur then trade at a higher price than those that represent a less likely outcome. This provides a way to approach the tacit (默许的) knowledge that exists in companies, especially ones that have many different divisions or offices.
Koch Industries, an American company in a range of businesses including chemicals, fertilizers and commodity trading, has been running prediction markets for the past nine months involving about 200 of its staff from different areas. The group, which has revenues of some $100 billion, has launched contracts on, among other things, the future prices of raw materials used in its chemicals division and the likelihood of bank nationalizations. Koch says the results so far have been pretty accurate compared to actual outcomes, but stresses that markets are complementary to other forecasting techniques, not a substitute for them.
A big obstacle facing managers using prediction markets is getting enough people to keep trading after the novelty has worn off. Many firms use gaming-style. leader boards to encourage internal competition, or offer modest prizes to the most successful traders. Lloyds TSB, a bank, launched a market in which participants identify the best new ideas by trading in a currency called Bank Beanz, which can then be exchanged for cash--a scheme the bank's head of innovation calls "an exceptional motivator".
Another reason prediction markets failed is that employees cannot see how the results are used, so they lose interest. Wells Fargo, a big bank that has been running internal markets for over a year to identify ways to improve service to some corporate customers, says its most effective tests took place in areas where managers could do something with their findings, making staff feel that trading was worthwhile.
Bosses may also be wary of relying on the judgments of non-experts. Yet many pilot projects run so far have shown that junior staff can often be surprisingly good forecasters. Perhaps the best way to find out when prediction markets will finally take off is to ask your employees--using a prediction market.
What does the author tell us about the prediction market in the passage？
Part Ⅱ Reading Comprehension (Skimming and Scanning)
Directions: In this part, you will have 15 minutes to go over the passage quickly and answer the questions on Answer Sheet 1. For questions 1-7, choose the best answer from the four choices marked A), B), C) and D). For questions 8-10, complete the sentences with the information given in the passage.
Earth Will Survive Global Warming, But Will We？
The notion that human activity, or the activity of any organism, can affect Earth on a planetary scale is still a hard one for many people to swallow. And it is this kind of disbelief that fuels much of the public skepticism surrounding global warming.
A poll conducted last summer by the Pew Research Center found that only 41 percent of Americans believe the burning of fossil fuels causes global warming. But in a meeting this week in Paris, officials from 113 nations have agreed that a highly anticipated international report will state that global warming was "very likely" caused by human activity. The idea that biology can alter the planet in broad and dramatic ways is widely accepted among scientists, and they point to several precedents throughout the history of life.
The mighty microbes
Human-caused global warming--also called "anthropogenic" global warming--is the latest example of life altering Earth, but it is not the most dramatic.
That title probably goes to the oxygenation of Earth's early atmosphere by ancient microbes as they began to harness the power of sunlight through photosynthesis(光合作用).
Humans "are having a strong effect on global geochemical cycles, but it does not compare at all to the advent of oxygenic photosynthesis," said Katrina Edwards, a geo-microbiologist at the University of Southern California (USC). "That was a catastrophic environmental change that occurred before 2.2 billion years ago which wreaked its full wrath on the Earth system."
Edwards studies another way life impacts the planet in largely unseen ways. She focuses on how microbes living on the dark ocean floor transform. minerals through a kind of underwater power.
"These microbes are completely off radar in terms of global biogeochemical cycles," Edwards told Live-Science." We don't consider them as part of the Earth system right now in our calculation about what's going on, and we don't consider them in terms of how the Earth system will move forward into the future."
These reactions are strongly influenced by life and have been occurring for billions of years, for as long as the oceans have been oxygenated and there have been microbes inhabiting the seafloor, Edwards said.
Creating Earth
On land, microbes, and in particular a form. of bacteria called cyanobacteria (固氮蓝藻), help keep soil in place and suppress dust.
"We'd certainly have more dust storms and it would not be anywhere as nice on Earth if they weren't around," said Jayne Belnap, a researcher with the United States Geological Survey.
Scientists believe the tiny life-forms performed the same roles on early Earth. "One of the big problems for geologists is that, OK, you have this big ball of rock, the soil is weathering out and you have these ferocious winds. What in the world is holding the soil in place as it weathers out of the rocks？" Belnap said in a telephone interview. "Cyanobacteria are also credited with that function."
The microbes anchored soil to the ground; this created habitats for land plants to evolve and eventually for us to evolve. "They literally created Earth in a sense," Belnap said.
"Cyanobacteria are just like 'it'," she continued. "I've been telling everybody to make a small altar and offer sacrifices every night. We owe them everything."
A snowba
A．Someone who is just out of university with exaggerated ideas of his own importance.B
A．The shorter hours they work, the higher pay they can enjoy.B．The more they work, the
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