I would like to comment on the relationship between the growth of the world economy and the role of macroeconomic policies. Let me begin with a review of the world economy. The world economy has performed much better than many feared a year ago. Current projections are that global growth will reach 4.5% this year, the highest rate of the last five years. Once again the major impetus has come from the United States. But the extremely rapid industrialization of China has also stimulated global growth.
Why has it turned out better than expected？ Two broad explanations might be ventured. The first explanation is simply the globalization of market forces. An increasing proportion of economic activity is being governed by the market. In the space of only 15 years, some large command economies have undergone economic reform. and become market economies. All this has unleashed a dynamic for growth that remains very strong, especially in China, India and Russia.
However, the second explanation is not so reassuring. We realize that growth over the past few years has been brought about in no small measure by, very expansionary macroeconomic policies. These have included massive fiscal stimulus in the United States, policy interest rates in the major countries held at or near postwar lows for some time, and an unprecedented amount of foreign exchange intervention by monetary authorities in Asia. Unlike structural reforms, the effects of such policy stimulus are only temporary, and the current stance of policies cannot continue indefinitely.
I think we need to take some effective measures to ensure the stable growth of the world economy. Evidence accumulates that macroeconomic policies will need to be tightened. Without putting what has been achieved at risk, of course. Fiscal policy, monetary policy and exchange rate policy ail need to be considered in this light.
Let me start with the industrial world. The US government budget, which was in surplus to the equivalent of 1% of GDP in 2000, is likely to register a deficit 9f 5% of GDP this year, a deterioration of the US fiscal position without precedent since the Second World War. Japan's general government deficit remains at around 8% of GDP. Deficits in some large economies in the euro area are also disturbing. Therefore, early action to curb such deficits is all the more important.
Although comparatively high unemployment is limiting nominal wage increases and spare capacity in manufacturing worldwide reinforces the competitive pressure on prices, there are signs that inflation is edging higher. Japan is slowly emerging from deflation. The pace of consumer price inflation in China has increased sharply in recent months, and there is evidence that prices are beginning to rise faster in some other Asian economies.
I think positively of recent macroeconomic policies that allow exchange rate to appreciate. The eventual movement in exchange rates could be more abrupt than if a greater degree of flexibility had not been allowed earlier. The expansion in domestic liquidity associated with the foreign exchange intervention policy could ultimately lead to inflation. Markets could become too dependent on the continued intervention, and could then be seriously destabilized by even a hint of a change in policy. My last word of advice is this: The stance of macroeconomic policies cannot remain as expansionary if stability is to be maintained in the medium term. We should avoid the two extremes of either putting the entire burden on exchange rates or not allowing exchange rates to move at all.