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If prices rise, we blame a conspiracy of greedy oil companies, OPEC or someone. The reality is usually messier. Energy economist Philip Verleger Jr. attributes the present price nm-up to massive miscalculation. Oil companies and OPEC underestimated global demand, particularly from China. Since 2001 China's oil use has jumped 36 percent. This error led OPEC and companies to underinvest in new production capacity, he says. In 2002 the world had 5 million barrels a day of surplus production capacity; now it has little. Unexpected supply interruptions (sabotage in Iraq, civil war in Nigeria) boost prices.
Verleger says prices could go to $60 next year or even $80 if adverse supply conditions persist. No one really knows. Analyst Adam Sieminski of Deutsche Bank thinks prices may retreat to the low $30s in 2005. A slowing Chinese economy could weaken demand. But the uncertainties cannot obscure two stubborn realities. First, world oil production can't rise forevers dwindling reserves will someday cause declines. And, second, barring miraculous discoveries, more will come from unstable regions--especially the Middle East.
We need to face these realities~ neither George Bush nor John Kerry does. Their energy plans are rival fantasies. Kerry pledges to make us "independent" of Middle East oil, mainly through conservation and an emphasis on "renewable" fuels (biomass, solar, wind). Richard Nixon was the first president to promise energy "independence". It couldn't happen then-- and can't now. The United States imports about 60 percent of its oil. A fifth of imports come from the Persian Gulf. Even if we eliminated Persian Gulf imports, we'd still be vulnerable. Oil scarcities and prices are transmitted worldwide. The global economy--on which we depend--remains hugely in need of Persian Gulf oil.
Bushes pitch is that we can produce our way out of trouble. No such luck. Drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, with possible reserves of 10 billion barrels, might provide 1 million barrels a day, or 5 percent of present U.S. demand. Fine. But the practical effect would be to offset some drop in production elsewhere. American oil output peaked in 1970; it's down 34 percent since then.
A groundbreaking study from the consulting company PFC Energy illuminates our predicament. The world now uses 82 million barrels of oil a day; that's 30 billion barrels a year. To estimate future production, the study examined historical production and discovery patterns in all the world's oil fields. The conclusion.. The world already uses about 12 billion more barrels a year than it finds. "In almost every mature oil basin, the world has been producing more than it's finding for close to 20 years," says PFC's Mike Rodgers. That can't continue indefinitely.
The study is no doomsday exercise. Rodgers says that future discovery and recovery rates could be better or worsen-than assumed. With present rates, he expects global oil supply to peak before 2020 at about 100 million barrels a day. Whatever happens, the world will probably depend more on two shaky regions: the Persian Gulf and the former Soviet Union. The Gulf now supplies a quarter of the world's oil; PFC projects that to rise to a third in a decade.
Although the future is hazy, what we ought to do isn't. W
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Jerry Springer could easily be considered the king of "trash talk". The topics on his show are as shocking as ,shocking can be. For example, the show takes the ever-common talk show themes of love, sex, cheating, guilt, hate, conflict and morality to a different level. Clearly, the Jerry Springer show is a display and exploitation of society's moral catastrophes, yet people are willing to eat up the intriguing predicaments of other people's lives.
Like Jerry Springer, Oprah Winfrey takes TV talk show to its extreme, but Oprah goes in the opposite direction. The show focuses on the improvement of society and an individual's quality of life. Topics range from teaching your children responsibility, managing your work week, to getting to know your neighbors.
Compared to Oprah, the Jerry Springer show looks like poisonous waste being dumped on society. Jerry ends every show with a "final word". He makes a small speech that sums up the entire moral of the show. Hopefully, this is the part where most people will learn something very valuable.
Clean as it is, the Oprah show is not for everyone. The show's main target audience are middle-class Americans. Most of these people have the time, money, and stability to deal with life's tougher problems. Jerry Springer, on the other hand, has mole of an association with the young adults of society. These are 18-to 21.year-olds whose main troubles ill life involve love, relationship, sex, money and peers. They are the ones who see some value and lessons to be learned underneath the show's exploitation.
While the two shows are as different as night and day, both have ruled the talk show circuit for many years now. Each one caters to a different audience while both have a strong following from large groups of fans. Ironically, both could also be considered pioneers in the talk show world.
Compared with other TV talk shows, both the Jerry Springer and the Oprah Winfrey are ______.
Baruch became interested in the physical sciences and the works of Thomas Hobbes and Rene Descartes. As a result of his studies, he grew away from Judaism and withdrew from the synagogue. In 1656, the rabbis banished Spinoza from Amsterdam. For the next five years he lived on the outside of the city where he supported himself by grinding optical lenses. During this time, Spinoza wrote his first philosophical work Treatise on God and Man and His Happiness. This work explained and outlined a good part of Spinoza's philosophical beliefs.
In 1661, Spinoza moved to Rijnsburg and a few years later he moved to Voorburg. From there he moved to the Hague. Soon after moving to the Hague, he was offered a Chair in Philosophy at the University of Heidelberg. Spinoza declined the offer. He was afraid it might compromise his freedom of thought and speech. At this time, Baruch Spinoza was well known and was well respected for his work. King Louis XIV of France offered Spinoza a pension on the condition that he dedicate one of his works to the monarch. Again, Spinoza rejected the offer.
Spinoza's work, Ethics Demonstrated in Geometric Order, was one of the best outlines of his theoretical framework. In this work, Spinoza divided his ethical thinking into five different part--"On God", " On the Nature and Origin of the Mind," "On the Nature and Origin of the Emotions," "On Human Bondage," and "On Human Liberty". Spinoza believed that the universe is identical with God, who is the uncaused "substance" of all things.
Baruch Spinoza used substance for God because he believed God was not a material reality but a basis for all things that are reality. Spinoza also stated that humans can only use two kinds of attributes of substance, thoughts and extension. With thought and extension comes parallelism. Parallelism is a theory that Spinoza developed that explained the order between the two of them. "The order and connection of ideas is the same as the order and connection of: things. "
Along with this theory, Spinoza believed that there was no room in the substance universe for the ignorance of one's actions. With these actions Spinoza believed the affect will change the rest of the body's power to act. It could increase or decrease the power even though God alone is the cause of those actions.
Spinoza discussed the concept of "human bondage" as a natural tendency for feelings and passions to take control of life and to make individuals into slaves. He believed that the only remedy for passion was actions. If a human can clearly understand their passions they can overcome their bondage much easier.
The reasoning behind the work was to lay out a program for the perfection of the human nature. Baruch had many sources for his work, but his knowledge of the work of Rene Descartes had a considerable influence on his own. He used most of Descartes vocabulary, definitions, and mathematical ways of thinking.
Baruch Spinoza died on Feb. 21, 1677 from tuberculosis. He is credited for the most thorough study of Pantheism. Many poets relate to his work as inspiration for their writings.
The word "synagogue" in the second paragraph most probably means______.
The word "offend" originally meant to strike against, but now the word signifies to create
According to the passage, which of the following statements is NOT true？
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