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But others counter that the central bank doesn't need to intervene. They argue the Fed should wait to see real data before acting. "The fundamentals are better than the stock market reflects", says Peter Kretzmer, an economist at Nations-Bane Montgomery Security. Indeed, President Clinton tried to do his part to calm the market during his trip to Moscow, citing the strong job market and balanced budget. "We believe our fundamental economic policy is sound," he said. His comments echoed statements by Peter Rubin in Washington.
Some numbers do continue to reflect a strong economy. On Sep. 1, the Conference Board released its index of leading indicators. The index rose 0. 4 percent, prompting the business organization to predict that the nation's output should increase at a moderate pace for the rest of 1998. The group sees little risk of recession in the near term.
But what has changed is the global economy. Japan and the rest of Asia are in recession. The woes are spreading to Latin America.
"I'm now convinced we are going to have a global economic recession," says Sung Won Sohn, chief economist at Norwest Corp, a Minneapolis-based bank. But, he added, it's not certain the US will slide into a period of negative growth. He rates the risk of recession at only 10 to 15 percent. "We will be responding to the world economic situation rather than leading it," he says. Still, Fed watchers don't think the central bank will act to try to save the world. "It's inconceivable the Fed could make much difference in Asia, Russia, or Latin America," says Lyle Gramley, a former Fed governor.
After the last stock market crash, in 1987, the Federal Reserve acted quickly to provide liquidity to the markets and to lower interest rates. But the economy is in better shape this time. The banking sector is stronger and the financial markets have been able to respond to the enormous trading volume. "It is not the Fed's job to manage the stock market," says Mr. Kretzmer. But the Fed will keep a close watch on Wall Street. If the market were to shave another 1,500 points off the Dow by the end of September, "then the Fed would think a- bout lowering interest rates," says Mr. Gramley. In his view, the Fed's main concern will be the impact of a sliding market on consumer confidence. Since 40 percent of the nation has investments in the stock market, any prolonged slide might make individuals feel less wealthy.
They would cut back on vacations and "splurge" purchases. He expects the central bank to watch the next consumer confidence surveys and housing statistics closely.
What did President Clinton try to do during his trip to Moscow？
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【B11】
听力原文： The fiddler crab is a living clock. It indicates the time of the day by the color of its skin, which is dark by day and pale by night. The crab's changing skin color follows a regular twenty-four hour cycle that exactly matches the daily rhythm of the sun.
Does the crab actually keep time, or does its skin simply respond to the sun's rays, changing color according to the amount of light that strikes it？ To find out, biologists kept crabs in a dark room for two months. Even without daylight the crab's skin color continued to change precisely on schedule.
The characteristic probably evolved in response to the rhythm of the sun, to help protect the crab from sunlight and enemies. After millions of years it has become completely regulated inside the living body of the crab.
The biologists noticed that once each day the color of the fiddle crab is especially dark, and that each day this occurs fifty minutes later than on the day before. From this they discovered that each crab follows not only the rhythm of the sun but also that of the tides. The crab's period of greatest darkening is precisely the time of low tide on the beach where it was caught.
(30)
听力原文：M: How was your dinner at the new French restaurant yesterday？
W: We didn't eat there. We drove all the way down there only to find it's not open on Monday, so we had our dinner at the small Chinese restaurant next door.
Q: What did the woman say about the new French restaurant？
(16)
I cry easily. I once burst into tears when the curtain came down on the Kirov Ballet's "Swan Lake". I still choke up every time I see a film of Roger Bannister breaking the "impossible" four-minute mark for the mile. I figure I am moved by witnessing men and women at their best. But they need not be great men and women, doing great things.
I remember the night, some years ago, when my wife and I were going to dinner at a friend's house in New York city. It was sleeting. As we hurried toward the house, with its welcoming light, I noticed a car pulling out from the curb. Just ahead, another car was waiting to back into the parking space—a rare commodity in crowded Manhattan. But before he could do so another car came up from behind, and sneaked into the spot. That's dirty pool, I thought.
While my wife went ahead into our friend's house, I stepped into the street to give the guilty driver a piece of my mind. A man in work clothes rolled down the window.
"Hey," I said, "this parking space belongs to that guy," I gestured toward the man ahead, who was looking back angrily. I thought I was being a good Samaritan, I guess--and I remember that the moment I was feeling pretty manly in my new trench coat.
"Mind your own business!" the driver told me.
"No," I said. "You don't understand. That fellow was waiting to back into this space.
Things quickly heated up, until finally he leaped out of the car. My God, he was colossal. He grabbed me and bent me back over the hood of his car as if I was a rag doll. The sleet stung my face. I glanced at the other driver, looking for help, but he gunned his engine and hightailed it out of there.
The huge man shook his rock of a fist of me, brushing my lip and cutting the inside of my mouth against my teeth. I tasted blood. I was terrified. He snarled and threatened, and then told me to beat it.
Almost in a panic, I scrambled to my friend's front door. As a former Marine, as a man, I felt utterly humiliated. Seeing that I was shaken, my wife and friends asked me what had happened. All I could bring myself to say was that I had had an argument about a parking space. They had the sensitivity to let it go at that.
I sat stunned. Perhaps half an hour later, the doorbell rang. My blood ran cold. For some reason I was sure that the bruiser had returned for me. My hostess got up to answer it, but I stopped her. I felt morally bound to answer it myself.
I walked down the hallway with dread. Yet 1 knew I had to face up to my fear. I opened the door. There he stood, towering. Behind him, the sleet came down harder than ever.
"I came back to apologize," he said in a low voice. "When I got home, I said to myself, 'what right do I have to do that？' I'm ashamed of myself. All I can tell you is that the Brooklyn Navy Yard is closing. I've worked there for years. And today I got laid off. I'm not myself. I hope you'll accept my apology."
I often remember that big man. 1 think of the effort and courage it took for him to come back to apologize. He was man at last.
And I remember that after I closed the door, my eyes blurred, as I stood in the hallway for a few moments alone.
On what occasion is the author likely to be moved？
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