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已知某一企业2020年初各类人员岗位实际人数，并根据该企业多年人力资源管理信息推测出人员流动的概率，试用马尔科夫模型分析企业2020年度人力资源的内部供给情况。
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Easy ways to Avoid an Argument1 My five-year-old son Andrew and I stopped at our local ice-cream shop to get dessert for his birthday party. The place was packed with people ordering complicated sundaes and milk-shakes. A high-school girl was alone behind the counter.2Though working as fast as she could, she seemed to be falling further and further behind.3At last she called our number and I asked for three liters of chocolate-chip ice cream. “Three liters!” She said, hands on hips. “Do you know how hard it is to scoop three liters?”4 I was tempted to let loose with "Well, excuse me! I thought this was an ice cream shop.” Instead, I held my tongue and asked myself a question I often raise when I am on the brink of an argument: why would she say something like that? Realizing then how overwhelmed she must have felt, I asked, "Has it been one of those days?"5 Her hostility melted. "It's been non-stop this morning. I’m alone, and I was supposed to get off at one o'clock, but ..." She continued to unburden herself as she packed our ice cream. When we left, she gave us a big smile and a friendly wave.6 What do you do when someone says something unfair or unkind? Do you suffer in silence,not knowing what to say? Do you speak up, only to wish you had not? It is natural to take offence if someone is rude. You may think, what a jerk! But blurting out how you feel sets an adversarial tone and will only make matters worse.7 Dealing with difficult people is a part of everyday life. And there are non-combative ways you can stand up for yourself without stepping on anyone's toes and starting an argument. I call these techniques "Tongue Fu!"8 Handle hassles with humor.At an airport, I saw a tall young man walking towards me.People were pointing at him, giggling.As the towering fellow approached, I could say why. His T-shit announced "No, I Am Not a Basketball Player." As he passed, I turned and saw the back of his shirt, which said, "Are You a Jockey?”9 I chased after him to ask where he had bought this terrific shirt. "This is nothing," he said, grinning. "I have a whole drawer full at home. My favorite says ‘ I'm 6'13" and the Weather Up Here Is Fine.’"10 He went on to explain, " I grew almost 30 centimeters between the ages of 16 and 18. People were always making smart-aleck remarks. My mom finally said, 'If you can't beat them, join them.' She was the one who thought I should wear these shirts."11Clever young man, clever mom.2 All of us have hot buttons that can cause us to lose our cool. If you have a condition that bothers you, try having fun with it. Start collecting comebacks for those comments you dread.13 As a revenue worker explained to me," Just about everyone who comes in here is antagonistic. Instead of taking offence, we have displayed boards with comic strips that poke fun at the IRS, which we jokingly call the Income Removal Service."14 One cartoon shows an auditor telling a citizen, "The secret is to stop thinking of it as your money." Another says "Sorry, we' re IN!"15 Notes the IRS worker, "When tax-payers see these, their attitudes change for the better."16 When people complain, do not explain. The phone rings at work. You answer it and the caller launches into a complaint: "I asked for a catalog three weeks ago and I still do not have it! What kind of business are you running anyway?"17 Don't bother explaining that half the staff is off with flu. Although they may be well-intentioned, such explanations usually add to the complainer's irritation because they come across as excuses. If the complainer had a legitimate gripe, avoid belaboring what went wrong. Instead, agree, apologize and then move on to what can be done about it. Simply say, " You're right. I'm sorry you haven't received it yet. If I can have your name and address again, I'll personally put it in the post to you today."18 I recently witnessed this approach first-hand. The waiting room at my doctor's surgery was full.The man opposite me had already scanned the pile of tattered magazines and was squirming in his seat, looking at his watch every few minutes.19 Finally he marched to the receptionist's window and rapped on the glass. "What's going on?" he demanded angrily. "I had an appointment for three o'clock."20 "You're right," said the receptionist. "I'm sorry you've had to wait so long. The doctor was held up in surgery. Let me phone the hospital to see how much longer he'll be. I appreciate your patience."21 Telling someone you are sorry does not mean you are admitting guilt. It simply acknowledges his frustration and defuses the complaint. Then by taking action and focusing on what can be done rather than what has not been done, you remedy a mistake before it gets bigger.22 Exit gracefully. A man I know said he and his wife went to her parents’ house for dinner one night.“While we were eating," he recalled, "I mentioned that the freeway construction had stalled again.What a mistake!"My father-in-law said he was glad. "That freeway should never have been built! It's devastating an important historical valley."23 “Well, I spend over an hour each day commuting to work," I told him. My wife's dad grumbles that it was typical of my selfish generation to think more about our commuting time than a significant archeological site.24 I lost my patience and said, "You can't stop progress." That did it. My father-in-law stood up and walked away, saying, "I do not have to sit here and listen to this at my own dinner table."25“I wish the whole thing had never happened. If I'd been more alert to how volatile this subject was for him, I could have prevented the whole unfortunate incident by saying, 'Let's agree to disagree about this, and politely steered the conversation to something else."26 In almost every controversy each side has legitimate points, so agreeing to disagree is one of several graceful exits from a no-win discussion. If it is obvious that you will not change the other person's mind and he or she will not change yours, stop. Before you do irreparable harm, remember the Russian proverb " A spoken word flies; you won't catch it."27 One effective way to sidestep stalemates is to say, "we're both right!" and move on to a safer topic. Say you and your mate disagree about how to discipline your teenager, and your discussion is escalating into an argument. just because you are not seeing eye-to-eye does not mean you are enemies. Saying "Hey, we both want the same thing." can get you out of the adversarial mode and working together again.28 Or you can gracefully bow out before you even bow in. I was talking to several colleagues,and the conversation turned to an election campaign. It had become ugly, with each party charging the other with dirty needs. My companions were on opposite sides of the political fence, and their discussion became heated. One turned to me and asked, "Who do you think should be elected?" I was not about to get involved in their no-win debate. I put my hands up and said with a smile, "Leave me out of this one."29 No matter what the situation is, arguments are a waste or, at best, a misuse of time.30 By avoiding fruitless arguments, everyone wins.(1,263 words)Multiple ChoiceChoose the best answer from the four choices given below according to the text.1. which of the following is true about the ice-cream girl?A. She was doing a part time job.B. She was a high school dropout.C. She was mad at the author.D. She was friendly with the author.2. It is natural for people to____ when they are offended.A. suffer in silence, not knowing what to doB. speak up, and hope to get the upper handC. blurt out how they feelD. be hostile and make matters worse3. You can avoid starting an argument and hurting each other by____.A. having fun with itB. handling the situation with humorC. telling jokes to the people aroundD. collecting comebacks for the comments you dread4. The young man the author met at an airport____.A. attracted people's attention because of his heightB. made people giggle by writing words on his shirtC. described the weather conditions high up in the skyD. cleverly stopped smart-aleck remarks about his height5. Revenue workers displayed boards with comic strips to make tax payers ____ .A. antagonisticB. less resentfulC. pay their taxes willinglyD. Pleasant6. When your clients complain to you, avoid ____.A. explaining what went wrongB. irritating them with the truthC. showing your good intentionsD.discussing the subject7. When someone argues with you, ____.A. leave him/ herB. go outC. change the subjectD. agree with him/her8. The Russian proverb quoted in the text "A spoken word flies; you can't catch it" probably means ____.A. you can not take back what you have saidB. stop speaking to the one who disagrees with youC. do not argue with the one who disagrees with youD. stop the argument before you hurt each other9. The author suggests in the text that ____.A. consumers should not be irritated by poor serviceB. we should control our temperC. we should not hesitate to please our father-in-lawD. we should avoid getting involved in arguments10.What is the main idea of the text?A. How to avoid arguments.B. How to deal with difficult people.C. Saying sorry does not mean you are admitting guilt.D. It is easy to avoid arguments.
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