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Culam Mining (Culam) is a mineral ore mining business in the country of Teeland. It owns and operates four mines. A mine takes on average two years to develop before it can produce ore and the revenue from the mine is split (25:75) between selling the ore under fixed price contracts over five years and selling on the spot market. The bulk of the business’s production is exported. A mine has an average working life of about 20 years before all the profitable ore is extracted. It then takes a year to decommission the site and return the land to a useable form. for agriculture or other developments.
Recently, one of Culam’s foreign competitors surprised the market by becoming insolvent as a result of paying too much to acquire a competitor when the selling price of their minerals dipped as the world economy went into recession. As a result, the chief executive officer (CEO) wanted to know if this was likely to happen to Culam. She had read about the Altman Z-score as a way of predicting corporate failure and had a business analyst prepare a report calculating the Z-score for Culam. The report is summarised below:
Analyst’s Report (extract)
The Altman Z-score model is:
Z = 1·2X1 + 1·4X2 + 3·3X3 + 0·6X4 + X5
Another quantitative model (Q-score model) has been produced by academics working at Teeland’s main university based on recent data from listed companies on the small Teeland stock exchange. It is:
Q = 1·4X1 + 3·3X3 + 0·5X4 + 1·1X5 + 1·7X6
Where for both models:
X1 is working capital/total assets;
X2 is retained earnings reserve/total assets;
X3 is profit before interest and tax/total assets;
X4 is market value of equity/total long-term debt (MVe/total long-term debt);
X5 is revenue/total assets; and
X6 is current assets/current liabilities.
Using the most recent figures from Culam’s financial statements (year ending September 2014), Culam’s Altman Z-score is 3·5 and its score from the other model (Q) is 3·1.
For both models, a score of more than 3 (for Z or Q) is considered safe and at below 1·8, the company is at risk of failure in the next two years.
The analyst had done what was asked and calculated the score but had not explained what it meant or what action should be taken as a result. Therefore, the CEO has turned to you to help her to make sense of this work and for advice about how to use the information and how Culam should proceed into the future.
Required:
(a) Evaluate both the result of the analyst’s calculations and the appropriateness of these two models for Culam. (10 marks)
(b) Explain the potential effects of a mine’s lifecycle on Culam’s Z-score and the company’s probability of failure. Note: You should ignore its effect on the Q-score. (7 marks)
(c) Give four detailed recommendations to reduce the probability of failure of Culam, providing suitable justifications for your advice. (8 marks)
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